The Value Betting Blog

The Simple Science of Profitable Betting

True Odds Calculator and 2 ways to use it

True Odds Calculator The fundamental basis to beat the bookmakers is to always bet over the True Odds. Do you know them, do you take them into account at the time of betting? If not, you are a ship without sails no rudder and the day of your capsizing as a bettor is near. This […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 17.12.2021

Arbitrage Betting: Risk-Free Profits? w/ Max from OddsJam

An arbitrage bet, or arb, in sports betting is when a bettor places 2+ bets on the same event using 2+ sportsbooks in order to lock in a risk-free return. Although this may sound too good to be true, it’s not! This is possible due to sportsbooks having different odds for the same event. Unlike […]

Max Davis 12.07.2021

Inside a ‘Winners Welcome’ Bookie w/ Tristan From Topsport

In 2021 is it possible to be a profitable bookmaker without aggressively limiting winning punters? The answer is yes. But it’s a whole lot harder. The targeting, profiling, and limiting of winning bettors is getting more brazen each passing year, being a successful bettor has become just as much about your ability to stay under […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 06.03.2021

Drawdown Monte Carlo Simulation Calculator for Sports Betting

This one is pretty cool, even by our standards.. below is our advanced betting simulation; a sports betting calculator that shows the efficacy of your betting system based on a few basic metrics. Check it out: (and scroll down for a full explanation)   This is a pretty powerful Drawdown Monte Carlo Simulation Calculator for […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 23.01.2021

No Limit Bookmakers: Bookies That Don’t Limit Accounts 2021

Having your betting account limited is a frustrating inevitability for profitable sports bettors. A ‘no limit bookmaker’ would be a godsend. Well.. ask and you shall receive. They do exist. Personally, I think it’s pretty poor form to cut someone off for winning. Shouldn’t the possibility of losing be inherent in any company that’s built […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 13.01.2021

Best Betting Exchange: Full Guide For 2021

The rise of betting exchanges over the last decade has opened the punting world up to a sea of new systems, new ways to bet, and new profitable opportunities. But which is the best betting exchange? I’ll guide you through the list and tell you who comes out on top! I have just read surely […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 06.01.2021

What Is Expected Value? Expected Value Calculator For Betting

Expected Value (EV) is the most simple of all betting equations: Expected Value is the predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence Simply, Expected Value is the average result you should expect to receive from the given bet or equation Expected […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 01.01.2021

How to Become A Sports Trader w/ Harout Massoyan

There is a lot of confusion when it comes to professional sports betting. Is it a daily grind, or is it passive and algorithmic? Do you wait and pick your spots, or do you attack the market aggressively? The answer: all of the above. From tipsters to machine learning algorithms, matched bettors to sports traders; […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 12.12.2020

How To Design A Sports Betting Strategy: Advanced Guide

In our previous article, we introduced three ways of testing your skill in sports betting: Betting with a small bankroll (or no bankroll, logging ‘fake’ bets in a spreadsheet) Backtesting Closing Line Value In this article, I will explain other ways of testing your skill and designing a betting strategy by following one of these […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 01.12.2020