The Value Betting Blog

The Simple Science of Profitable Betting

True Odds Calculator and 2 ways to use it

True Odds Calculator The fundamental basis to beat the bookmakers is to always bet over the True Odds. Do you know them, do you take them into account at the time of betting? If not, you are a ship without sails no rudder and the day of your capsizing as a bettor is near. This […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 17.12.2021

Drawdown Monte Carlo Simulation Calculator for Sports Betting

This one is pretty cool, even by our standards.. below is our advanced betting simulation; a sports betting calculator that shows the efficacy of your betting system based on a few basic metrics. Check it out: (and scroll down for a full explanation)   This is a pretty powerful Drawdown Monte Carlo Simulation Calculator for […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 23.01.2021

What Is Expected Value? Expected Value Calculator For Betting

Expected Value (EV) is the most simple of all betting equations: Expected Value is the predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence Simply, Expected Value is the average result you should expect to receive from the given bet or equation Expected […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 01.01.2021

How To Design A Sports Betting Strategy: Advanced Guide

In our previous article, we introduced three ways of testing your skill in sports betting: Betting with a small bankroll (or no bankroll, logging ‘fake’ bets in a spreadsheet) Backtesting Closing Line Value In this article, I will explain other ways of testing your skill and designing a betting strategy by following one of these […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 01.12.2020

Testing Your Betting System: Starters Guide

If you don’t know how to test your betting system, you’re flying blind. I’ll breakdown why we test, the forms of testing, and the methods used to test our betting systems. You could call every stage of betting a form of testing: While you are gathering information to create the grounding of your system; you’re […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 14.11.2020

What Is A Bookmaker?

A bookmaker is a person or organisation that offers betting odds on certain events. Their job is to set the odds for an event, then receive and pay-out bets depending on the outcome.  Bookmakers come in many forms, some operate purely online, some operate only in betting shops or at sports events, and others do […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 28.07.2020

The Value Betting System – Simply Profitable

Making consistent money betting is not rocket science, in fact, the methodology behind it is incredibly simple. Value Betting. In this article, I will show you the simple but effective method of Value Betting, how it works, why it works and how to implement a Value Betting System! Summary What Are Value Bets? Value Bets […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 14.07.2020

P-Value and Expected Maximum Drawdown Spreadsheet for Sports Betting

Summary In this entry you can find an Excel spreadsheet to calculate the values of: P-Value: The probability of a sports betting yield being a result of luck Expected Maximum Drawdown: The average drawdown of a series of bets P-Value and Expected Maximum Drawdown Spreadsheet PVALUE_EMDD_BANKROLL.xlsm (update 8/7/20) P-Value The p-value calculated in the PVALUE_EMDD_BANKROLL.xlsm […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 26.03.2020