The Value Betting Blog

The Simple Science of Profitable Betting

True Odds Calculator and 2 ways to use it

True Odds Calculator The fundamental basis to beat the bookmakers is to always bet over the True Odds. Do you know them, do you take them into account at the time of betting? If not, you are a ship without sails no rudder and the day of your capsizing as a bettor is near. This […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 17.12.2021

Drawdown Monte Carlo Simulation Calculator for Sports Betting

This one is pretty cool, even by our standards.. below is our advanced betting simulation; a sports betting calculator that shows the efficacy of your betting system based on a few basic metrics. Check it out: (and scroll down for a full explanation)   This is a pretty powerful Drawdown Monte Carlo Simulation Calculator for […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 23.01.2021

How To Design A Sports Betting Strategy: Advanced Guide

In our previous article, we introduced three ways of testing your skill in sports betting: Betting with a small bankroll (or no bankroll, logging ‘fake’ bets in a spreadsheet) Backtesting Closing Line Value In this article, I will explain other ways of testing your skill and designing a betting strategy by following one of these […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 01.12.2020

Testing Your Betting System: Starters Guide

If you don’t know how to test your betting system, you’re flying blind. I’ll breakdown why we test, the forms of testing, and the methods used to test our betting systems. You could call every stage of betting a form of testing: While you are gathering information to create the grounding of your system; you’re […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 14.11.2020

8 Things ACTUAL Profitable Bettors Never Say

There are a whole lot of people who claim to be profitable bettors, but only a small percentage who actually are. Thankfully, it’s really not that hard to identify someone who is stretching the truth… They say some silly things. Here’s 8. Summary “I’ve got a sure thing, my friend has insider knowledge!” Let’s start […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 20.10.2020

Professional Betting: 14 Pro Punters Give Their Best Advice

Being a professional sports bettor is simple. You just find an edge, throw your money down, and profit. Simple. But that doesn’t mean it’s easy. It takes incredible control and discipline. Most pro bettors you meet won’t be wheelin’ and dealin’ nomads living life on the edge. Bankroll management, cool temperament, diligent analysis; these are […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 19.09.2020

Betting Stake Strategy: Level Vs Proportional Staking (With Calculator)

It doesn’t matter how good you are, how good your algorithm is, or how bulletproof you think your system is; If you screw up your betting stake strategy, you’re in trouble. Bankroll management and your staking strategy aren’t just boring logistics. The difference in your risk, maximum drawdown, and profit potential can be gobsmacking when […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 12.09.2020

Finding The Best Tipsters (A Sceptics Guide)

Meet every tipster with maximum scepticism and you might just be able to find a good one. We’ve all been tempted to join that football tipster with ‘insider knowledge’ and a 50% ROI – quit your job, live on a yacht, and just watch your bankroll explode. And, we’ve all thought better of it. (Hopefully) […]

Jake Windram-Ashby 05.09.2020

Level Or Percentage Staking, Risk/Reward

Summary About Level Or Percentage Staking The blog article “A comparison of level and percentage staking” written by Joseph Buchdahl (@12Xpert) shows the importance of choosing a staking strategy and its infuence on the profit, yield and probability of not making profit, after Monte Carlo simulations of 1000 bets. This article is very interesting and […]

Miguel Figueres Moreno 28.07.2020