WinnerOdds Results 2021 – Tennis Stats

Long gone is the year of the pandemic… Lots of new players, new #1….

Ok, but is WinnerOdds still winning?

In this article we will see how much.

long term!

We add one more year, reaching already more than 60,000 picks!

We are going to present data from the beginning, and others particularized to 2022, which has been a spectacular year.

And we are going to do it taking advantage of all the data that have been generated with WinnerOdds Tennis sports betting, for more than 6 years now!

General stats

Since May 2015 when we started registering bets, more than 60,000 bets have been placed. The profit graph, in units, is as follows:

• The green line is the units earned by betting the amount recommended by WinnerOdds at the odds of the first bet registered by one of our users.
  
  This is a “theoretical” profit, as nobody can be the first to bet on all recommended matches and at all bookmakers.
  
• The yellow line is the units earned by betting the amount recommended by WinnerOdds at the average odds bet by our users.
  
  For this we calculate the potential profit of all bets saved by users, and the volume bet by all users, and thus the average odds bet will be 1+(potential profit / volume bet).
  
  This is also a “theoretical” profit, as it would be that of someone who places all the recommended bets, but at the average odds of the users.
  
• The blue line is the profit betting at the minimum recommended odds, which would be more or less what a very slow user, who bets on all the matches, would earn just at the moment when the odds are going to fall below the minimum odds.
  
  

The closest to reality will be a user placing approximately 40% of the bets, at average odds.

Only 40% of the total? Yes, but in 2022 we have published more than 12000 bets. 40% is 400 per month.

The total WinnerOdds users profit, which is the one displayed on the homepage, over all bets placed, is as follows:

If instead of number of bets, we represent time on the X-axis, we can observe the profit over time. In the first years, a certain “periodicity” can be observed, which is broken with the spectacular year 2018, and interrupted by Covid in 2020, with a different but also positive trend in 2021.

Whenever the profit curve falls from a previous maximum, we can calculate the drawdown, and we will see that the maximum drawdown in euros lost by all users at some point has occurred precisely at the end of 2021.

In addition to unfavourable results, this is also due to the fact that the average bankroll of users has been higher over the last year.

You can see that the maximum drawdown has been almost €300,000 lost among all users, but as we use a positive Expected Value method, in the long run it will eventually recover (even if there are drawdowns along the way).

Every time the red line touches €0, it means that a new high occurs.

It is frightening but it is what it is, variance is inevitable and the higher the number of bets, the higher the probability of getting a higher maximum drawdown, although we expect it will take a while to repeat itself.

As for the total volume wagered, we see that it has a fairly uniform trend, although due to the larger bank size in recent years, the slope is somewhat steeper.

The figures are significant, with a total betting volume higher than 120 million euros in total, amazing!

Results tables

After recent results, many users see patterns where there are none: “in qualis I don’t win”, “on Fridays you always lose!”, etc… Well, with the data in hand we can make the best decision, which is… let WinnerOdds decide when to bet.

Profit per round

This last year we have improved a lot in qualifying rounds, and despite being matches with Super Tie Break, we have obtained the best result in terms of profit and yield. The table below shows the profit per round from the start and in 2021, betting at average user odds.

Profit per month

If we look at the data from the beginning, we have always thought that December and January are the worst months. They are in terms of having fewer bets and therefore fewer units, and there can be more variance, but in terms of profitability, they are not bad months at all. If we look at the results in units at average odds bet by users, it may seem that the clay season (March to August) is the most favourable, however, it was not last year, perhaps because the calendar was a little more varied than usual.

The same table in euros shows somewhat different results. In general, worse, but they are the most realistic we have, and still positive.

Last year we obtained a yield somewhat above average, although there has been a lot of variability month by month, with a disastrous month of October (the Maximum Drawdown we mentioned before). As we will see later, the average odds have increased and the variability is somewhat higher.

Profit by day of the week

Although these tables are quite similar to the round tables, qualis are sometimes played on Sundays as well, so let’s see what you get depending on the day of the week.

Betting frequency by day and time

The following tables are very useful to know at what times and on what days you receive the most notifications:

Frequency of matches by day and time

More out of curiosity than anything else (especially for the coffee fans), days and times at which betting matches start:

Profit performance on candlestick charts

Although we have already seen the evolution of profit on a bet-by-bet basis, or over time, by displaying the same results on a candlestick chart it is easier to see how many weeks or months you win and lose, as well as the highs and lows within each period.

Annual evolution

If we consider that tennis has an annual periodicity, due to the holidays in December, and the seasons of the different surfaces, the annual analysis can give us some additional information on how the system has been evolving, influenced also by the changes in the bookmakers:

It can be observed that from 2018 onwards, the method was able to find many more bets, and that despite a slightly lower yield, a higher profit was made, with a much higher volume wagered in the last few years (except in 2020 due to the almost 6 month shutdown due to Covid).

Despite having the highest DD in history in 2021, the annual profit has also been the highest in one year.

Bets per week

The increase in bets can also be seen by looking at the bets per week over the years:

Since mid-2018, up to 350 bets per week have been recommended.

If we also show the total games played per week, we can also calculate the percentage of games bet on.

You can see that in January, due to the time that many players have been out of action, the percentage of bets is between 5% and 10%, while the rest of the year, the percentage of matches bet is between 15% and 20%, i.e. almost one in every five or six matches is bet!

It may seem like a lot, but the algorithm looks for and finds value in all of them in many bookies, and I’m not going to complain about it!

Profit of all users per match wagered

How much do we win or lose between all users on each bet?

Well, this is the distribution, as you can see, we win more than we lose. Often we win very little in a single match (few bets in a few bookmakers), but between all of us, we are “scratching” money slowly.

The maximum amount of money lost on a single bet is -€38,423, and the maximum amount won on a single bet is €21,940. This is because the average weighted odds bet is less than 2.

However, the hit rate is around 70%, which means that overall you win more than you lose.

Conclusions

In view of all the data, we can conclude that the method still works although it has had to adapt to the value odds offered by the bookmakers, changing the average odds to a higher value (higher variance), but finding considerably more bets than the first years.

It can be said that there is no round, day of the week or month that is not profitable, although it can be observed that some situations are better than others.

Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays are the most active days, including 56% of bets, and are concentrated in the hours between 5am and 7am (UTC+0), although last year, with the Covid-affected calendar having more tournaments in Europe than in Asia, there has also been a lot of betting in the afternoon between 4pm and 8pm (UTC+0).

Let’s hope that 2022 will be better than 2021, in number of bets, profit and yield, and that we don’t go through any DD like October 2020… but that’s impossible to know, variance has no memory, so we’ll have to keep trusting in the long term.

Good luck to everyone!