Introduction
Something I’ve realized over the years is that regular bettors suffer from a feeble mindset that makes them agonize during rough patches and hardly enjoy themselves when it’s smooth sailing.
Science has led us to believe that we’re rational beings. And that that’s what sets us apart from animals.
But, the way I see it, we’re built with an inherent defect: we’re unable to tame our emotions intuitively. And, yeah, that brings us into trouble and fosters bad decisions. Our brain is result-oriented.
Most decisions we make day to day are on the spur of the moment, automatic, and we rarely have time to evaluate if what we’re doing today is the decision with the highest +EV—whether we’re working with the right frame of mind or not.
And here’s where I can fit in a concept that perfectly unpacks the idea behind this article: the renowned mental models of Charlie Munger.
In his own words, a mental model is a thinking framework that serves as your toolbox for understanding the world and making decisions. It’s like having your personalized set of tools to navigate the intricacies and complexities of the world around us.
Finding out that we’re not as skilled as we think could prevent a few short-term disappointments. In fact, breaking the shackles of your result-oriented brain could open up a fairly uncharted outlook.
Four psychological views that will enhance your betting skills
1. Slow thinking
Slow thinking is a term coined by Daniel Kanheman and Amos Tversky, and it’s vital for any veteran sports bettor. To put it briefly, it’s about
«taking the sufficient time to analyze in depth what you’re investing in and evaluating if your decision will be beneficial in the long term»
Let’s look at a couple examples to grasp it better:
-> If they win the match, it means they’re the better team
-> If he gets a higher grade in the exam, it means he’s smarter
Now, is the winning team in a match always better than the losing team? Is the student with the highest grade always the smartest one?
“Sometimes, results defy logic”
Daniel Kanherman
So, applying a thorough approach to reason lowers the likelihood of making impulsive decisions and reduces the prominence of cognitive biases in our actions.
2. The dichotomy of control
Any sports bettor lives on an incessant emotional rollercoaster. It’s just human nature in full force.
If you think about it, human beings have barely changed over millions of years. Our brain mechanisms haven’t been altered, and we react to inputs in the same way we did when we were cavemen.
This phenomenon can be explained by the Lindy effect, which states that anything that has persisted over a long period of time is bound to carry on.
This can be easily linked to the intricacies of our minds.
The fact that our brains work similarly to how they did millions of years ago suggests that certain cognitive and behavioral patterns are adaptive and useful in the long run.
The dichotomy of control is a good example. It’s a concept within Stoic philosophy that originated in the 3rd century B.C. and remains valid to this day.
It states a simple message that can be applied to sports betting.
Don’t stress over something that doesn’t depend on you
Epiceto
Personally speaking, it’s one of the tools I employ most often in periods of hardship or when I’m simply worrying about something. Is the issue under my control? Can I do anything to remedy it? Have I done everything in my power to accomplish this?
If the answer is yes, just give it your all and stop overthinking. If the answer is no, why struggle over something you can’t fix?
In the investing world, we face this dichotomy every single day. We constantly experience losses and rough situations outside the boundaries of what we can control.
My advice is to stop tormenting yourself over events you have no influence on, such as sports matches, and focus on what truly depends on you, like placing all the bets you can, signing up on enough bookies, and following your system to a T. You’ll see how that reduces your levels of frustration and exhaustion.
3. Rationalize loss aversion
Adrián Mateos is currently one of the most successful poker players in Spain and worldwide.
A few days ago, I heard an interview of his in which he said something I find incredible and that you’re sure not to expect from someone who’s made over 35 million euros playing cards.
I lose 80% of the tournaments I participate in
BOOM, a statement of nuclear magnitude.
It’s probably not the win rate you’d expect, but it perfectly matches the science behind the game.
Let me explain.
Not even after more than 30,000 bets under my belt can I escape the agony brought on by losing.
Get this into your head: there’ll be many days when you’ll do things right but still lose. You’ll even be doing things to perfection only to be slaughtered mercilessly.
Coming to terms with such a counterintuitive reality is so important that Wall Street actively hunts for old poker players who are likely to swiftly adapt to their financial environment.
That’s because they have an advantage. They understand that the success of a strategy hinges on its +EV and not on its immediate result.
Same thing can be said about value betting. The bets we place every day are determined by their expected value, not their immediate result.
At the end of the day, if you make sufficient +EV decisions over time, winning is inevitable.
4. Be better than the average user
“When others are still snoozing, you’re already hard at work”.
It sounds like the catchphrase of your middle-of-the-road motivational guru.
But this isn’t about encouraging you to give up on sleep or sacrifice healthy habits—quite the opposite. It’s about defining proper routines and staying ahead of the curve.
If you want to stand out, your best bet is to be better than average. Hard work is not in the limelight in the current state of affairs. It’s far more trendy to hear people boasting about their no-effort, quick success. With no hard work involved.
Sorry to be a killjoy, but that rarely works.
At WinnerOdds, the best way to be above average is to save up on time. We’ve shown that the busiest period of the day in terms of new picks is from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. (GMT +1), yet I receive daily messages asking how to get better results.
It’s an open-and-shut case. Just wake up earlier.
Moreover, you’re unlikely to receive work emails and calls so early. It’s a serene opening to the day, perfect for leaving your picks ready, starting your daily routine, and doing exercise. The sensation of starting the day feeling like you’ve already done your homework is unmatched.
Get up early. Be better than the average. Save up on daytime.
How to apply these concepts to WinnerOdds
I’ll list out a handful of tips and tricks so that you can apply all of these life hacks to WinnerOdds in your day-to-day life.
1. Early bird gets the pick. Place picks while most others are catching some Zs.
2. Be organized. Stay logged in and make sure your browser remembers the password for your bookie accounts.
3. Strive for efficiency. Use bookmaker search bars and every shortcut in the book.
4. Speed is key. Memorize the MPO, odds, and stake so that you don’t have to keep tabbing back and forth.
5. Be cautious. Have all your documents ready for the moment bookies require them.
6. Hone your accounting skills. Excel is a good friend of yours; log deposits, withdrawals, and balances to have everything under control
7. Pay the taxes you’re due so you don’t cry your eyes out down the line unless you’re a lucky bastard living in the UK
A final example that will help you understand the full picture
Check these two situations out and decide which option you’d pick.
How much would you need to be paid by winning (or, to put it differently, what would the odds have to be) for you to bet €10 on heads or tails? (assuming you can repeat the same bet countless times)
a) I’m not betting
b) €15 (1.5 odds)
c) €20 (2.0 odds)
d) €30 (3.0 odds)
e) €30 or more
How much would you need to be paid by winning (or, to put it differently, what would the odds have to be) for you to bet €1000 on heads or tails? (assuming you can repeat the same bet countless times)
a) I’m not betting
b) €1500 (1.5 odds)
c) €2000 (2.0 odds)
d) €3000 (3.0 odds)
e) €3000 or more
If your decision differs, it means that your bankroll is pretty small, and if it doesn’t, it means that your bankroll is large.
People with a strong loss aversion tend to play their bets safe independent of their bankroll. They’re partial to low odds and are less open to assuming risk. They’ll generally pick options a, b, or c.
On the other hand, people less restrained by loss aversion will aim for options d or even e, as they’ll be willing to put more on the line in favor of the long-term +EV.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that they have a large bankroll, just that they’re willing to take risks in pursuit of long-term profit.
What we can learn from this example is the same as what Adrián Mateos taught us.
Focusing on the +EV tied to a decision instead of obsessing over the immediate result is paramount for bettors who are looking for long-term profitability.
Accepting that the journey will be full of losing periods while trusting that your +EV decisions are driving you toward success is a fundamental principle in sports betting and in general investing.
Final thoughts
In conclusion, becoming a long-term successful investor doesn’t only require technical abilities, but also habits and a mindset that will help us make appropriate decisions and keep ourselves motivated.
Slow thinking, keeping calm, accepting that losing is part of the game, and getting up early to have more time at your disposal are habits that can make or break your investing journey.
Acquiring these habits can reduce the stress and anxiety associated with sports betting, as well as increase our chances of long-term success.
Cheers,
Miguel Figueres
P.S. Here’s the (Spanish) interview with Adrián Mateos.
-> Cómo tener una Mentalidad Ganadora (Campeón de Poker Mundial) | Ep 54
*In case you’re interested, you can active subtitles
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