In 2023, WinnerOdds Tennis has gone through the first “normal” year in terms of number of worldwide competitions and matches since that fateful March of 2020.
As is customary at this time of the year, we’ll recap the results yielded by WinnerOdds Tennis last year.
General Stats:
Since May 2016, when we started to output bets, we’ve recorded 76,000 unique bets.
This is what the total profit graph in units looks like:
Profit in units from all placed bets:
- The green line shows the units gained when wagering the recommended stake on the odds logged by the first user to place each bet.
It’s a “theoretical” graph, as no user could be first to place a bet on every match and have all betting houses available.
- The yellow line shows the units gained when wagering the recommended stake on the average odds per match generated by all our users. It’s generated by calculating the potential profit of every logged bet, the total volume wagered by our users, and drawing out the average odds with the formula 1+(potential profit / wagered volume).
It’s also a “theoretical” graph, as it depicts a user who would place every single prompted bet on the average user odds.
- The blue line shows the units gained when betting on the minimum profitable odds, which can be interpreted as the results that a very slow user would experience—a user who bets on every match right as the odds are about to drop below the minimum profitable odds.
The most realistic case would be a user who places around 40% of the total bets on the average user odds.
“Only 40% of the bets?”
In 2023, we’ve beaten the total bets per year record with over 14,000 recorded bets. Shocking numbers.
In other words, the average user places around 400 bets per month.
That should put it into perspective.
The total profit generated by WinnerOdds over every recorded bet can be seen on our homepage, and here’s a more detailed graph:
This is not a mere record, but an awe-inspiring milestone that we’ll always remember 2023 for. We’ve reached the 10 million euro mark in profit among our users.
Not gonna lie, if the day I drafted this business idea on an Excel sheet, someone had told me that I’d be responsible for this much money made in sports betting, I would’ve rolled my eyes. The idea sounded good in my head, but this kind of business was and still is unique to us here in Spain.
Anyway, let’s keep going 🙂
If, instead of using the X axis for the number of bets, we use it to represent time, we can observe the total profit generated over time.
It shows a rather prosaic first few years, climbing up at a slow rhythm that stopped in 2019, a spectacular year that kick-started an updraft only interrupted by Covid in 2020. Afterward, we see a different but also positive course in 2021 and 2022.
The rising pattern continues on to 2023, reaching the maximum sum by the end of the graph and scratching that glorious 10 million euro mark.
Let’s get on to the section I enjoy the least—drawdowns.
Every time the profit graph drops relative to the previous maximum profit, we can calculate the drop—or drawdown—and pick out that the maximum drop experienced by our users happened in late 2021.
Other than adverse results, that’s also because the average bankroll of our users has gone up in recent years.
As you can see, the deepest drawdown we faced neared the 300,000 euro loss across our users and took place in 2021. If you understand how to interpret the graph, you’ll realize that we’re currently going through a great patch.
However, as a renowned user of our community likes to say, “money comes and goes”. Logical thinking will lead you to realize that if you use a Positive Expected Value method like WinnerOdds and don’t falter over a long stretch of time, you’re extremely likely to bounce back from temporary drawdowns.
If, like me, you feel drawdowns deeply in your chest, here’s an article I wrote a while back about how to deal with them:
– Five tips to overcome a drawdown
In fact, as we place more and more bets, the likelihood of facing a maximum drawdown increases, as much as we hope it takes a while to repeat.
Neglecting to consider this causes some of our users to stop using the tool out of frustration. I also wrote about this, as it’s paramount to diagnose it if you want to make money with WinnerOdds.
– Why people fail to use WinnerOdds properly
As far as the total wagered volume goes, we can see that it follows a fairly steady growth pattern, although due to the average user bank having increased in recent years, the incline gets steeper by the end.
We’re dealing with pretty significant figures over here, exceeding the 225 million euros of total bet volume, quite an achievement!
Result Charts
Following recent results, many users have started to see patterns out of nothing.
“qualifiers aren’t profitable”,
“Fridays are always red!”
“every time I lose a fat bet, the whole week goes straight to the dumpster…”
etc…
All right, if we take the data into account, history dictates that the best decision is…
…to let WinnerOdds say when and how much to bet.
Let’s take a close look
Profit per round
In 2023, we’ve greatly improved in 1/64 and 1/32 rounds, which, looking at the global results chart, spells out that it’s an “improvement” attributable to short-term variance.
The following charts show the total profit per round both since WinnerOdds’ launch and in 2023, drawn from the user-average odds.
By comparing both charts, we can see that the 2023 yield is slightly inferior to the total one. Just a matter of variance.
But, most of all, these show, without a shadow of doubt, that the system is still alive and kicking.
2023 has been, much to the dismay of those who lose their marbles after 3 negative weeks and are nowhere to be seen during the positive ones…
…a year closely in line with the average, sitting at a 5.83% yield versus the 6.37% generated since our beginnings.
Profit per month
A belief ingrained in our world is that the start and end of the season are less profitable.
That December and January are rough months to bet because players go on vacation, have their minds elsewhere, or are not in shape yet.
Well, looking at the data, we can see that’s a mistaken belief. It’s not the case at all. In fact, it seems to be the opposite.
Having fewer chances due to holidays and off-time doesn’t correlate with inferior winnings.
If we look at the overall panorama (first chart), we can see that the yield per month is very similar across the full calendar year.
In fact, in the long term, December turns out to be the second most profitable month yield-wise…
The same chart in euros paints a slightly different picture, generally a little worse as far as yield goes, but it’s the most realistic outlook we have available, and it still comes out positive across the board.
Profit per day of the week
These charts aren’t so different from the round stats, but since qualifiers are sometimes played on Sundays, let’s take a look at the overall results sorted by day of the week.
In 2023, 14 weeks out of the 52 have been negative.
In other words, 73% of them have been positive.
If you’re the type of person to say, “this week is in shambles…” “we can’t get out of the pit…”
…broaden your scope and keep placing bets 🙂
Frequency of bets by day and time
Here are a handful of useful charts to help you figure out when to expect the most notifications.
Knowing when you’re likely to receive new picks can help with creating efficient routines and habits.
Frequency of matches by day and hour
Mostly just to satisfy your curiosity—especially if you’re the kind to watch every live match on your three-monitor setup—these charts detail when relevant matches start.
Evolution of the total profit in candlestick charts
Even though we’ve already looked at the evolution of the total profit over time, using candlestick charts to depict the same growth better highlights the number of positive and negative periods as well as the maximum swings within them.
For this yearly recap, since it’s getting impossible to depict so many years at once without significant image distortion, I’ve chosen to include candlestick charts per year.
This will help you take in all the craziness that we’ve achieved since WinnerOdds’ inception and visualize its evolution year by year. You’re sure to identify two standout years.
2020—the pandemic and the great fall. It was our major descent (which we overcame, all needs to be said)
2022—utter madness of a year. Hardly any drawdowns and a vast majority of positive weeks amassing more and more profit non-stop.
Here are all the graphs so that you can take your own conclusions:
Yearly evolution
If we establish that tennis runs at yearly intervals based on the vacations in December and the different court surfaces, analyzing our results per year can give insight on how the system has evolved, although the progression is also influenced by how bookmakers have adapted.
As evidenced here, from 2018 onwards, the system started to spot many more valuable selections than before, and despite the slightly lower yield, the profit increased thanks to the much higher volume (except in 2020 due to the nearly 6-month-long Covid interruption).
In total profit terms, 2023 has been our second best year since kick-off.
Results per competition
The users who refresh their stats page every 10 minutes love to hold grudges against particular selections.
Are Challenger games really profitable? Is betting on WTA and ATP actually worth it?
Here is all the data categorized by competition, both since our launch and just in 2023. This should be all you need.
Bets per week
The increase in bets can also be observed by looking at the number of weekly bets placed over the years:
Since mid-2018, we’ve prompted up to 350 bets per week. In 2023, we reached the 500 bets in a single week, setting another absolute record.
If we also consider the number of weekly matches, we can compute the percentage of matches we bet on.
This year, the percentage of matches we bet on increased a little relative to 2022 because some competitions have gradually healed from the pandemic, especially in Asia.
The algorithm adapts to the number of matches, and if it finds value in all of them, I’m not gonna go and argue it!
I’m just a mere human being 🙂
Overall user profit per selection
Among all users, how much do we gain or lose with every bet?
Take a look. This is the distribution, and as you’ll clearly see, there are more winnings than losses.
Often, we make very little back in a single match (few bets on a few bookmakers), but as a whole, we nickel-and-dime our way through.
The max we lost in one fell swoop was -€68,000.
And the most we gained at once was €23,680. Bless their hearts.
The disparity is because the average weighted odds we bet on are inferior to 2.
However, the hit rate hovers at around 70%, which, collectively, lets us make more money than we lose.
Real yield vs. expected yield
This graph shows the yield obtained based on the relationship between the betting house’s odds and our minimum profitable odds.
It reveals various interesting facts:
Even after all these years, betting on the minimum profitable odds returns a yield above 0%. In periods where the expected yield was 2%, we obtained an even better one, close to 4%.
The higher the odds relative to the minimum profitable odds, the higher the yield obtained, but it’s not a proportional measure, as a massive difference doesn’t lead to a massive yield.
It’s a sign that when WinnerOdds’ estimations vary wildly with what bookmakers display, both of us are likely overestimating the probabilities of a certain result and its counterpart.
While, indeed, the greater the difference between the betting house’s odds and our minimum profitable odds, the greater the yield, we must apply a fractional Kelly criterion to determine the stake size, as an unmodified Kelly criterion wouldn’t take into account any potential errors in our calculations.
Little discrepancies between betting house odds and our estimations are far more common, which is only logical considering both of us draw from similar information sources.
Conclusions
I still recall my haters back in 2017, when we introduced this tool to a greater audience. Swarms of Twitter accounts were up in arms about how in the world an AI robot (first time they’d heard of the term) was obtaining better results than humans. On top of that, I was ready to charge €79 a month (or however much I charged back then)
Turns out that by joining forces with people who knew more than me, with titanic patience, and by tinkering with thousands of parameters, the tool made its breakthrough. Year after year, it keeps adding more digits in the bank accounts of the thousands of users who’ve passed through WinnerOdds Tennis.
The facts speak for themselves, and every time I think about the 10 million euro mark, I feel chills down my spine.
In conclusion, 2023 was a fantastic year, carrying on with the great results we’ve amassed historically.
Any user who makes good use of the tool is sure to be obtaining significant earnings, and that’s what keeps me going.
Let’s hope for a 2024 with an even higher number of bets, profit, and yield. And may we not encounter another drawdown like that of October 2020… although, appealing to my rational engineer side, I know that’s impossible to tell.
Variance has no memory, and so we’ll have to keep believing in the long term.
Best wishes to everyone, here’s to a brilliant 2024 🤖
Cheers,
Miguel Figueres
