Beating Pinnacle’s lines is regarded as the pinnacle of success in sports betting.
They’re known for offering the tightest odds, high market liquidity, and, most importantly, for not limiting the accounts of winning users. It’s, undoubtedly, one of the best betting sites worldwide.
So, you’ll be asking, why would WinnerOdds, a service that has proven capable of beating this giant, opt for ceasing its monitoring? Isn’t it counterintuitive to stop trying to one-up the best? Isn’t it counterintuitive to, in our never-ending fight against account limitations, disregard a site that welcomes winners?
Let us explain the reasons behind this important decision and why we believe it’s the best path forward for our users.
Pinnacle’s business model: Winners are welcome, but at what cost?
According to Pinnacle’s website:
“Pinnacle’s strategy is not to limit sharp players, but rather to learn from them. Pinnacle takes the information from the bets of a sharp player and uses that information to decide if the odds need to change and, if so, by how much.”
In theory, it’s a fair approach for both sides of the coin. The experienced punter who wants to bet consistently, can do so with generous stake limits and will never be expelled for winning too much.
In exchange, Pinnacle parses information granted by those successful bettors and obtains valuable data.
This article explains this concept in more detail: Winners Welcome at Pinnacle
Are we giving away information?
Valuable information for Pinnacle
All the data gathered by Pinnacle is used to improve their margins and enhance their odds calculations. This is what fosters the aura of “invincibility” around Pinna, and it’s what turns it into the ultimate test for any betting system.
At WinnerOdds, as you can see in the image below (Tennis and football results) we’ve proven that beating Pinnacle in the long run is possible. However, this victory has significant drawbacks.
Tennis
Football
Every time one of our users places a bet on Pinna, we’re, inadvertently, helping them refine their calculations.
In simpler terms, we’re providing excellent data at a very low cost.
In this article, they explain how important winning users are for them. They invest loads in powerful data models to output the sharpest results, so rejecting bets from winning users would go against their strategy. That’s why they explicitly welcome winners.
Read more here: To restrict or not to restrict? That is the question
The domino effect on the market
The subsequent problem is that Pinnacle’s odds adjustments drag the whole market with it. Pinnacle creates a domino effect on all other betting sites.
Most betting sites out there use Pinna lines to adjust their own. Some even go the extra step and copy them straight away.
And so, betting on Pinnacle indirectly affects the mileage you can get on other betting sites, lowering the overall value our users can find in the market.
This is a significant problem considering most of our users are tagged as “sharp punters” by Pinnacle.
The site recognizes their ability to identify valuable odds, making it very easy to lower lines the moment they place a bet, and leaving almost no time for the remaining users to find worthwhile selections.
Moreover, there are loads of systems (i.e. “chasing steamers”) whose whole methodology works around detecting dropping odds on Pinnacle.
This example repeats over and over:
-WO releases a bet on Pinnacle -> our users bet -> Pinnacle’s odds drop -> the “chasing steamers” systems all bet on that selection on all other betting sites…
You see the issue, right?
Those systems also indirectly benefit from the information we give to Pinnacle.
Why we made this decision
Protecting the value for our users
Over time, we’ve realized that monitoring Pinnacle isn’t worthwhile for us. First off, it’s a betting site with low usability, as few users can place bets above our Minimum Profitable Odds, which generates little profit for them. Second, the information we’re giving away is worth more than what we get.
And lastly, that information, instead of helping us in any capacity, is being used to reduce the value in WO selections. It’s a double-edged sword, and one of the sides is much sharper.
That’s why we’ve decided that the best course of action with our users and the long-term sustainability of WinnerOdds in mind, is to stop monitoring Pinnacle.
What does this mean for WinnerOdds users?
Diversification and using other betting sites
In practice, nothing will change. You’ll simply stop seeing Pinnacle odds on the site, so you’ll be able to focus on all the remaining betting sites available.
Here they are, if you’d like to take a look: Monitored Bookmakers at WinnerOdds
For our current users, this change marks an opportunity to keep focusing your activity on betting sites where the value is more accessible and where we’re not, as far as we know, helping them tighten their calculations the more we win.
A couple of months ago, we hosted a community livestream where we ranked all the betting sites from worst to best. If that sounds interesting, leave us a comment here and we’ll point you to the video.
Conclusion
Our decision to stop monitoring Pinnacle isn’t a defense strategy but rather a proactive move that veils for our users and aims to maximize long-term gains.
Even though Pinnacle is known for not limiting winning users and offering the sharpest odds, the truth is that every bet we place there gives away valuable information that eventually turns against us.
In essence, we’re giving them information that allows them to fine-tune their odds and reduce the margin of earnings for our users.
Additionally, since many other bookmakers adjust their odds based on Pinnacle, this amplifies the effect. We are, unintentionally, contributing to a widespread adjustment of odds in the market, which reduces the potential value for WinnerOdds users.
By ceasing activity on Pinnacle, we’re not giving up on beating the best, but rather making the smart decision to focus on sites where we can continue to find the best value possible.
Our goal has always been and will always be to maximize our users’ earnings, and we believe this change will help us continue along that path.
This reminds me of a phrase I once heard from Adrián Mateos, one of the current top poker players, which sums up the idea behind this decision:
“You don’t have to beat the best to achieve great results; you just need to sit at the table with players worse than you.”
