The year of the pandemic is far behind us… Many new players, new #1…
But is WinnerOdds still winning?
In this article we will see how much.
We add one more year, surpassing already 60,000 picks!
We will present data from the beginning, and others particularized to 2022, which has been an spectacular year.
And we will do it taking advantage of all the data that has been generated with the WinnerOdds Tennis bets, for more than 6 years!
General stats
Since May 2016 when we started recording bets, more than 60,000 bets have been made.
The profit graph, in units, is as follows:
- The green line is the units earned by betting the amount recommended by WinnerOdds at the odds of the first bet registered by one of our users.
This is a “theoretical” profit, as nobody can be the first to bet on all recommended matches and at all bookmakers. - The yellow line is the units earned by betting the amount recommended by WinnerOdds at the average odds bet by our users.
To do this we calculate the potential profit of all bets saved by users, and the volume bet by all users, and thus the average odds bet will be 1+(potential profit / volume bet).
This is also a “theoretical” profit, as it would be that of someone who places all the recommended bets, but at the average odds of the users. - The blue line is the profit betting at the minimum recommended odds, which would be more or less what a very slow user, who bets on all the matches, would earn just at the moment when the odds are going to fall below the minimum odds.
The most similar to reality will be a user who makes more or less 40% of the bets, at the average rate.
Only 40% of the total?
Yes, but in 2022 we have published more than 12,000 bets.
This means, 400 picks per month.
Well
The total profit of WinnerOdds, which appears on the main page, throughout all bets made is as follows:
As of today, we are just one step away from reaching an impressive figure of 8 million euros in earnings among all of our users!
If instead of the number of bets, we represent time on the X-axis, we can observe the profit over time.
In the early years, a certain “periodicity” can be observed, which is broken by the spectacular year of 2018, and which is interrupted by Covid in 2020, with a different but also positive trend in 2021 and 2022.
Every time the profit curve drops relative to a previous maximum, we can calculate the drop or “drawdown”, and we will see that the maximum drop in euros lost by all users at some point has occurred precisely at the end of 2021.
In addition to unfavourable results, this is also due to the fact that the average bankroll of users has been higher over the last year.
As you can see, the maximum drawdown reached has been about 300,000 euros in losses among all our users, which occurred in 2021.
However, by using a positive Expected Value method like WinnerOdds in the long-term we are able to recover despite temporary drops (although not all users are able to handle it).
If you are one of them, in this article we explain five ideas to overcome a drawdown.
Every time the red line touches 0€, it means a new maximum is reached.
It’s true that the number can cause some vertigo, but it’s important to remember that in the world of sports betting investment, variance is inherent.
In fact, as we make more bets, we should expect a higher probability of suffering a maximum drawdown, although we hope it takes a long time to repeat itself 🙂
Regarding the total volume bet, we see that it has a fairly uniform trend, although due to the larger bankroll size in recent years, the slope is slightly more pronounced.
The numbers are big, with a total volume bet close to 180 million euros in total, that’s amazing!
Results tables
After recent results, many users see patterns where there are none:
“I never win in qualies,”
“Fridays always lose!”
etc…
Well, with the data in front of us,we can make smart choices, which is…
…to let WinnerOdds decide when to bet.
Profit per round
This past year we have improved a lot in qualifying rounds, and despite being with Super Tie Break, we have obtained the best result in terms of profit and yield.
The following table shows the profit by round since the beginning and in 2022, betting at the average user odds.
In 2022, the most profitable round by yield has surprisingly been the finals, and the least profitable have been the semifinals…
...simply due to variance!
Profit per month
We have always thought that December and January are the worst months to bet, but if we look at the data, we see that in terms of profitability they are not so bad.
Despite having fewer opportunities due to the holidays, it doesn’t necessarily mean less profit.
On the other hand, the clay season is usually considered the most favorable, but it doesn’t always turn out that way.
For example, last year, the schedule was more varied than normal and the results were not as good as expected.
The same table in euros shows somewhat different results. In general, worse, but they are the most realistic we have, and still positive.
The last year has seen a yield slightly above average, although there has been a lot of variability by month, with a very bad January and an incredible December (with few bets).
Profit by day of the week
Although these tables are similar to those of rounds, Sundays sometimes also play qualis, so let’s see what is obtained according to the day of the week.
Betting frequency by day and time
The following tables are very useful to know at what times and on what days you receive the most notifications:
Frequency of matches by day and time
For those who like to go in depth data, this information is just for curiosity 🙂
Here are the days and hours when the games start:
Profit performance on candlestick charts
We have already looked at the evolution of profit in each bet or over time, but seeing these results in a candle chart helps us better understand how many months or weeks we win or lose, and also the highest and lowest points within each period.
2022 has been an amazing year with all months in the positive
Drawdowns can be frustrating, but this year they have been less severe.
Annual evolution
Looking at yearly results can show how our system has changed over time, considering factors such as tennis schedule, surfaces and changes in bookies over the year.
In summary, we can see that since 2018, we have found more bets and made more money with a higher volume of bets, except in 2020 due to the pandemic.
2022 has been a great year, with a high volume of bets and a high profitability in euros.
It’s also important to mention that the yield with the recommended minimum odds has been very high in relation to the number of bets made.
Bets per week
The increase in bets can also be seen by looking at the bets per week over the years:
Since mid-2018, up to 350 bets per week have been recommended.
If we also show the total games played per week, we can also calculate the percentage of games bet on.
This year the percentage of bets has been decreasing as the number of matches has been back to normal, except for less tournaments in Asia than before the pandemic.
The algorithm is adapting to the number of matches and finding value in all of them, and I’m not going to argue with it!
I’m just a simple human 😀
Profit of all users per match wagered
How much do we win or lose between all users on each bet?
The distribution shows that we win more than we lose.
Although we may not win much in a single match (by making few bets in few bookies), by adding up all the bets, we see that the result is positive.
The maximum amount of money lost on a single bet is -€46,652, and the maximum amount won on a single bet is €21,940.
This is because the average weighted odds bet is less than 2.
However, the hit rate is around 70%, which means that overall you win more than you lose.
Conclusions
In view of all the data, we can conclude that the method continues to work better than ever.
It has been able to adapt to the post-pandemic circumstances and to the value odds offered by the bookmakers, changing the average odds to a slightly higher value (greater variance), although it has found considerably more bets than in the first few years.
It cannot be said that there is no round, day of the week or month that is not profitable, although it can be observed that some situations are better than others.
Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays are the most active days, including 57% of bets, and are concentrated in the hours between 5am and 7am (UTC+0), although last year, with the Covid-affected calendar having more tournaments in Europe than in Asia, there has also been a lot of afternoon betting between 2pm and 8pm (UTC+0).
Let’s hope that 2023 will be as good as 2022, in number of bets, profit and yield, and that we don’t go through any DD like October 2020… but that’s impossible to know.
Remember
Variance has no memory, so we will have to keep trusting in the long term.
Good luck to everyone, and here’s to 2023! 🤖
