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WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

Summary

I have to admit that this WinnerOdds Tennis results article is one of my favorites to write every year. It helps me gather the most important data, check that the machine is still running as smoothly as ever, and of course, inform all users (and the curious) about the milestones we are achieving.

And as we do every year at this time, we will present the results that WinnerOdds Tennis has obtained during this first half of 2024.

Let’s get to it.

General Stats:

Since May 2016, when we started to output bets, we’ve recorded 80,000 unique bets.

This is what the total profit graph in units looks like:

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

Profit in units from all placed bets:

  •     The green line shows the units gained when wagering the recommended stake on the odds logged by the first user to place each bet.

It’s a “theoretical” graph, as no user could be first to place a bet on every match and have all betting houses available.

  •     The yellow line shows the units gained when wagering the recommended stake on the average odds per match generated by all our users. It’s generated by calculating the potential profit of every logged bet, the total volume wagered by our users, and drawing out the average odds with the formula 1+(potential profit / wagered volume).

It’s also a “theoretical” graph, as it depicts a user who would place every single prompted bet on the average user odds.

  •     The blue line shows the units gained when betting on the minimum profitable odds, which can be interpreted as the results that a very slow user would experience—a user who bets on every match right as the odds are about to drop below the minimum profitable odds.

The closest to reality can be found between the blue line and the yellow line. A user who manages to place around 40% of the bets sent by the algorithm.

In 2024, we are on track to reach more than 12,000 bets per year, a figure that aligns with previous years.

And this, translated into more tangible numbers, means that an average user places around 400 bets per month.

Fine.

The total profit of WinnerOdds, which appears on the homepage, across all recorded bets is as follows:

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

This is not a mere record, but a milestone, as 2024 will always be remembered as the year we definitively consolidated eight-figure profits, surpassing the 11 million euro mark for the first time.

Today I remembered one of the first moments when I presented WinnerOdds to some friends I thought could help me. When I shared the idea for the first time, most people responded with something like “it’s impossible that this will work for you” or “How are you going to get people to subscribe?”

I don’t blame them; I admit that you had to have faith, it wasn’t easy to believe. And if they had told me back then that I would be here in July 2024 publishing this post sharing over 11 million euros in real profits, I wouldn’t have believed it.

But anyway, let’s keep going with the data. 🙂

If, instead of using the X axis for the number of bets, we use it to represent time, we can observe the total profit generated over time.

It shows a rather prosaic first few years, climbing up at a slow rhythm that stopped in 2019, a spectacular year that kick-started an updraft only interrupted by Covid in 2020. Afterward, we see a different but also positive course in 2021 and 2022.

The rising pattern continues on to 2023, reaching the maximum sum by the end of the graph and scratching that glorious 10 million euro mark.

In 2024, we have started with the same dynamic as in 2023, with numbers close to 1.5 million euros in profits in these first six months.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

Let’s get on to the section I enjoy the least—drawdowns.

Every time the profit graph drops relative to the previous maximum profit, we can calculate the drop—or drawdown—and we can see this very clearly in the graph below. Each peak is a drawdown, and each drop to 0 means we have recovered from the fall.

The maximum drop in euros lost by all users at some point occurred precisely at the end of 2021, with a figure close to 300,000 euros.

It is possible that these drawdowns will become larger over time, as the average bankroll of users has increased in recent years. The important thing here is to keep the risk controlled relative to the total bankroll.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

In 2024, despite the good results we are accumulating, as you will see later, we have had several bad weeks, with losses close to 200,000 euros in total among all users. If you understand the graph, you’ll realize that we’re currently going through a great patch.

However, as a renowned user of our community likes to say, “money comes and goes”. Logical thinking will lead you to realize that if you use a Positive Expected Value method like WinnerOdds and don’t falter over a long stretch of time, you’re extremely likely to bounce back from temporary drawdowns.

If, like me, you feel drawdowns deeply in your chest, here’s an article I wrote a while back about how to deal with them:

– Five tips to overcome a drawdown

In fact, as we place more and more bets, the likelihood of facing a maximum drawdown increases, as much as we hope it takes a while to repeat.

Neglecting to consider this causes some of our users to stop using the tool out of frustration. I also wrote about this, as it’s paramount to diagnose it if you want to make money with WinnerOdds.

– Why people fail to use WinnerOdds properly

As far as the total wagered volume goes, we can see that it follows a fairly steady growth pattern, although due to the average user bank having increased in recent years, the incline gets steeper by the end.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

We’re dealing with pretty significant figures over here, exceeding the 250 million euros of total bet volume, quite an achievement!

Result Charts

Following recent results, many users see patterns where there are none:

“I don’t win on qualifiers,”

“Fridays are always a loss!”

“Every time I lose a big bet, the whole week is ruined.”

etc…

Well, if we look at the data, we see that this is a biased reality, and the best decision remains…

…to let WinnerOdds decide when and how much to bet.

Let’s take a look.

Profit per round

What these tables show us is something we already know but sometimes find hard to accept. There are no tournament rounds more profitable than others, at least not enough to make unilateral decisions.

What we do observe is that following the system and making all the bets it sends you without discriminating by rounds, tournaments, or days of the week benefits you.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

In 2024, despite those who get nervous when we lose three finals in a row, this has been a very good year for the final rounds, with the algorithm being particularly sharp, achieving a yield of 20.83%.

Profit per month

There is a belief ingrained in the investor community that the beginning and end of the season are less profitable. This is especially pronounced in tennis because the season practically stops in December. However, matches—though fewer—continue to be played, and the algorithm keeps delivering good results.

Look, if you want to unsubscribe in December because you want a break, that’s fine. But if you do it because there are fewer matches, because you think the players are going to rest, drop out to go on vacation with their family, or are physically worn out, know that this is not a good decision.

Looking at the data, we see there is no relation. In fact, it’s almost the opposite.

Despite fewer opportunities in December due to the holidays, this does not necessarily mean less profit.

In fact, in the long term, December turns out to be, in terms of yield, the second most profitable month, something as counterintuitive as it is real.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

The same chart in euros paints a slightly different picture, generally a little worse as far as yield goes, but it’s the most realistic outlook we have available, and it still comes out positive across the board.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

Profit per day of the week

These charts aren’t so different from the round stats, but since qualifiers are sometimes played on Sundays, let’s take a look at the overall results sorted by day of the week.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

In 2024, 8 weeks out of the 28 have been negative.

In other words, 75% of them have been positive.

If you’re the type of person to say, “this week is in shambles…” “we can’t get out of the pit…”

…broaden your scope and keep placing bets 🙂 

Frequency of bets by day and time

Here are a handful of useful charts to help you figure out when to expect the most notifications.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

Knowing when you’re likely to receive new picks can help with creating efficient routines and habits.

Frequency of matches by day and hour

Mostly just to satisfy your curiosity—especially if you’re the kind to watch every live match on your three-monitor setup—these charts detail when relevant matches start.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

Evolution of the total profit in candlestick charts

Even though we’ve already looked at the evolution of the total profit over time, using candlestick charts to depict the same growth better highlights the number of positive and negative periods as well as the maximum swings within them

As you can see, the predominant color is green, a sign that the system has consistently been profitable since it was launched.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

And as we did last year, and since it’s almost impossible to show so many years without the image getting distorted, I have decided to publish the candlestick chart for each year.

This will help you take in all the craziness that we’ve achieved since WinnerOdds’ inception and visualize its evolution year by year. You’re sure to identify two standout years.

2020—the pandemic and the great fall. It was our major descent (which we overcame, all needs to be said).

2022—utter madness of a year. Hardly any drawdowns and a vast majority of positive weeks amassing more and more profit non-stop.

And also these first six months of 2024, which have continued to show strong performance and profitability.

Here are all the graphs so that you can take your own conclusions:

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

Yearly evolution 

If we establish that tennis runs at yearly intervals based on the vacations in December and the different court surfaces, analyzing our results per year can give insight on how the system has evolved, although the progression is also influenced by how bookmakers have adapted.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

As evidenced here, from 2018 onwards, the system started to spot many more valuable selections than before, and despite the slightly lower yield, the profit increased thanks to the much higher volume (except in 2020 due to the nearly 6-month-long Covid interruption).

In total profit terms, 2023 has been our second best year since kick-off.

And in 2024, despite the difficulties, aggressive closures, and limitations, it is turning out to be a year with a great yield of 5.79%, making it the best year of the last few years so far.

Results per competition

The users who refresh their stats page every 10 minutes love to hold grudges against particular selections.

Are Challenger games really profitable? Is betting on WTA and ATP actually worth it?

Here is the data categorized by competition, both globally and in 2024.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

As we see in global samples, like the first graph, the numbers are very stable and there are hardly any differences between tournaments in terms of yield. However, if we look at the second table, the one for 2024, we see that short- and medium-term variability is very high.

For example, ITF shows a yield of 2.81% and WTA shows 13%. The usefulness of these graphs is to see how everything stabilizes in the long term, while variability is higher in the short term. Understanding that gains are not linear will help you on your path as an investor.

Bets per week

The increase in bets can also be observed by looking at the number of weekly bets placed over the years:

Since mid-2018, we’ve prompted up to 350 bets per week. In 2023, we reached the 500 bets in a single week, setting another absolute record.

If we look at the purple line, in 2024 we are on the higher end of weekly bets.

If we also consider the number of weekly matches, we can compute the percentage of matches we bet on.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results
WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

This year, the percentage of bets has dropped slightly compared to 2023, although there are practically no significant differences. Not much to say in this case.

Overall user profit per selection

Among all users, how much do we gain or lose with every bet?

Take a look. This is the distribution, and as you’ll clearly see, there are more winnings than losses.

Often, we make very little back in a single match (few bets on a few bookmakers), but as a whole, we nickel-and-dime our way through.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

The disparity is because the average weighted odds we bet on are inferior to 2.

However, the hit rate hovers at around 70%, which, collectively, lets us make more money than we lose.

The max we lost in one fell swoop was -€68,000.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

And the most we gained at once was €23,680. Bless their hearts.

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

Real yield vs. expected yield

WinnerOdds 2024 Tennis Results

This graph shows the yield obtained based on the relationship between the betting house’s odds and our minimum profitable odds.

It reveals various interesting facts:

Even after all these years, betting on the minimum profitable odds returns a yield above 0%. In periods where the expected yield was 2%, we obtained an even better one, close to 4%.

The higher the odds relative to the minimum profitable odds, the higher the yield obtained, but it’s not a proportional measure, as a massive difference doesn’t lead to a massive yield.

It’s a sign that when WinnerOdds’ estimations vary wildly with what bookmakers display, both of us are likely overestimating the probabilities of a certain result and its counterpart.

While, indeed, the greater the difference between the betting house’s odds and our minimum profitable odds, the greater the yield, we must apply a fractional Kelly criterion to determine the stake size, as an unmodified Kelly criterion wouldn’t take into account any potential errors in our calculations.

Little discrepancies between betting house odds and our estimations are far more common, which is only logical considering both of us draw from similar information sources.

Conclusions

It has already been 8 years since this project took its first steps, and each article I write brings me more satisfaction than the last. This is primarily because reality has far surpassed my aspirations. Today, I’m thrilled to be writing an article about tennis having surpassed 11 million euros in profits, which is just incredible. Reaching the 800,000 pick mark is astonishing, and the community we’ve built is a dream come true. There are many reasons to be happy, and I write this conclusion with immense gratitude knowing that we’re doing much more than placing bets here and there; we’ve built a community that’s now unstoppable.

What brings me the most joy is helping people reach their goals. Knowing that WinnerOdds has improved so many lives over these years is deeply fulfilling—we all seek self-satisfaction, after all. Our mission at WinnerOdds is to help those around us, our loved ones, achieve their goals.

2024 is shaping up to be another spectacular year, following the great results we have historically achieved.

Any user properly utilizing the service is making good money, and no subscription fee can pay for that.

Let’s hope for a second half of 2024 with an even higher number of bets, profit, and yield. And may we not encounter another drawdown like that of October 2020… although, appealing to my rational engineer side, I know that’s impossible to tell.

Variance has no memory, so we’ll have to keep believing in the long term.

Best wishes to you all, let’s conquer the rest of 2024

Cheers,

Miguel Figueres

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Autor
Miguel Figueres
Miguel Figueres
BTC/ETH FTW Civil Engineer. Associate Professor at UPV. Specialized in Artificial Intelligence. CEO and creator of @WinnerOdds

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